Tuesday, April 27, 2010

A possible May Day 2010 scenario?

Yes, this particular May Day does promise to be somewhat memorable, doesn't it? My pity certainly goes out to anyone who has to sit through the upcoming drama.

I think you and I already know exactly how this is going to play out in the streets. The Maoists and their urban cohorts, while claiming to be conducting nothing more than a "peaceful" strike, will permit some of their number to harass, antagonize, and provoke the security forces. When the security personnel inevitably react, the Maoists' sympathizers amongst the so-called "civil service" and "human rights" agencies will go crying to the foreign press.

The Maoists will amorally exploit any and all possible "casualties" of the upcoming fracas, until the usual melange of Indian and Western boutique-left interlopers step in to broker a new settlement between the SPA and Maoists, which may or may not involve giving the premier's chair back to Prachanda...... thereby sparing the Maobadis the effort and hassle of having to seize the organs of state by force.

This wouldn't be the first time the Maoists have utilized this very strategy with unqualified success. Have you read Dr. Thomas Marks' columns in the past? There is one I've just rooted out of NepalNews' archives, dating way back to 4/13/2006. It's amazing how much of the analysis is still topical, and how prescient Dr. Marks was on many aspects of the unravelling crisis of "Naya Nepal":

John Kelleher
Deputy Secretary-General
United Nationalist Nepalese (UNN)


John M. Kelleher said...

A brief mention of Aleksandr Kerensky may be topical here. Kerensky was the well-intentioned yet ultimately inadequate fellow who headed the 1917 Provisional Government in Russia just before the Bolsheviks took over. A non-Communist Leftist, he somehow managed to make himself despised on both the Left and the Right, leaving him easy prey for a Bolshevik coup. One historian brutally observed that Kerensky had "the heart of a lion, and the brains of a sheep."

That might actually be too kind a description for MaKuNe, Nepal's own latter-day Kerensky. "The heart of a vulture, and the brains of a slug" would probably be more apt. On further consideration, that description could apply just as easily to all of the major SPA party leaders. I honestly do not pity these people for the ordeal they are about to pass through - an ordeal which they have brought down on their own heads. I do, however, pity the Nepalese people, who are about to suffer through yet another disruption in their lives, thanks to the utter mind-boggling stupidity of Nepal's political class.

The Maoists sense a vulnerable target - and they are entirely correct. They've publicly sworn to topple the current cabinet, and I have no doubt they will deploy all means at their disposal to do so. Their timing couldn't be better. Yet the apparent tactical advantage which they Maoists have over the government at this point may actually be their undoing. If the Maobadis become an immediate and direct threat to the state itself, this may finally give the Army the pretext it needs to intervene. The Army cannot intrude upon the political process except to defend democracy from imminent collapse; the Maoists, if they overplay their hand, may ultimately give the Army just such an opportunity.

Anonymous said...

The State must seize this opportunity to crush the insects once and for all.

Does our Army have the balls to support such a noble cause?

Jai Hind.

Now where are we?