Yes, this particular May Day does promise to be somewhat memorable, doesn't it? My pity certainly goes out to anyone who has to sit through the upcoming drama.
I think you and I already know exactly how this is going to play out in the streets. The Maoists and their urban cohorts, while claiming to be conducting nothing more than a "peaceful" strike, will permit some of their number to harass, antagonize, and provoke the security forces. When the security personnel inevitably react, the Maoists' sympathizers amongst the so-called "civil service" and "human rights" agencies will go crying to the foreign press.
The Maoists will amorally exploit any and all possible "casualties" of the upcoming fracas, until the usual melange of Indian and Western boutique-left interlopers step in to broker a new settlement between the SPA and Maoists, which may or may not involve giving the premier's chair back to Prachanda...... thereby sparing the Maobadis the effort and hassle of having to seize the organs of state by force.
This wouldn't be the first time the Maoists have utilized this very strategy with unqualified success. Have you read Dr. Thomas Marks' columns in the past? There is one I've just rooted out of NepalNews' archives, dating way back to 4/13/2006. It's amazing how much of the analysis is still topical, and how prescient Dr. Marks was on many aspects of the unravelling crisis of "Naya Nepal":
United Nationalist Nepalese (UNN)