Reflections from Sri Lanka and lessons for Nepal By P.S. Kunwar

Like everyone else in the world in general and South Asia in particular, the end of the LTTE has provided an opportunity to look for lessons for Nepal . The general perspective from the liberal left leaning international press, caught off guard as usual, has been to say that the Sri Lankan tactic of shunning negotiations, pursuing a relentless military campaign and acceptance of civilian casualties, a) should not have been followed and b) would not have worked. This press perspective was backed up by the never ending interviews from aid workers and human rights activists that focused on humanitarian suffering and the absence of peace. However, it did work and Sri Lanka is now rid of an affliction that hindered its progress for more than a quarter century.

Nepal on the other hand has done everything by the book. So theoretically we should be well on our way to permanent peace. Theoretical prescriptions followed fast and furious from the likes of the treacherous UNMIN, the simplistic Nordics, unreliable Europeans, and a lumbering giant neighbor led by its fringe communist tail. We gave up our constitution, kingship, religion, culture, history, unitary state, national anthem, national seal, national dress and we still don’t have peace. In addition we gave away; citizenships, money to enemy combatants, the honor of being declared martyrs, and - most importantly of all - our place as a fully sovereign state in South Asia . Yet we still don’t have peace. Nepal ’s peace process is a case where the operation was a success but the patient died!

How did we come to this pass? Before following Sri Lanka ’s example of rejecting prescriptions from international peace quacks, it may be interesting to see why these international quacks and their attendant nurses from the press, human right activists and development business were tried. What were the motives of the Nepali leaders to allow such a travesty? It is all about cover-up, consolidation, cash and hope.

Motive 1: Cover Up. The simplistic interpretation of history and the cause of the Maoist uprising, swallowed hook-line and sinker by the likes of UNMIN, served our self-serving politicians well. According to this, Maoists took up arms against an autocratic king to restore democracy and create social justice. However, the fact that there was a functioning democracy, with a constitutional king, that they took up arms against in 1996 is conveniently forgotten. This version allows the politicians to cover up their decade long misrule and corruption as well as lay all blame on the kingship.

Motive 2: Consolidation. Even without the Maoists, Nepal had had enough of the geriatric greedy politicians and hence the celebrations after the royal coup. Following the advice of the quacks, these politicians were handed with the status of major parties without ever being put to the test. Who knows how history would have changed if they had participated in the 2006 elections. As the last election showed, these so-called major parties have continued to decline in popularity. In addition to the parties, it allowed a group of mentally challenged has-beens to emerge as leaders of civil society who till today are up to their vomit inducing antics in their attacks against the Presidency.

Motive 3: Cash. No one can deny the huge amount of money that accompanied the prescriptions from quacks. It was far easier for our “leaders” to rather lie down as a patient than debate the quacks understanding of reality. This led to a rabbit like multiplication of newspapers, NGOs, human rights groups with names like HURPES and peace builders eager to lap up this distorted understanding of history and make hay in the process.

Motive 4: Hope: Since Nepalis are a hopeful lot; our leaders who sold their souls still have two hopes. One is that the motives mentioned above do not come to light. The second hope is that the quacks prescription will still work. However, both hopes will be shattered. The alternative to the Maoists are not the mainstream parties. They can never be a bulwark against a Pol Pot like state. If a fresh alternative does not emerge from within the parties soon, they will lose the next conflict with the Maoists and take us with them to the darkest days in Nepal ’s history. If we depend on them we are sunk. The real civil society needs now to enter politics, the press and human rights movement to remove the cancer in Nepal ’s democracy, and like Sri Lanka , do it our way.

Etiquette for Street Protests

I sure am sticking my neck out trying to prescribe etiquette for what essentially is "mobism". But here goes.

Two days ago, I was walking along Durbar Marg when the Maoist street protest passed me by, on the way to the President's residence. There were a few hundred people with banners decrying "the Presidential Coup" and lots of Maoist flags waving merrily. One individual ran well ahead of the procession assuring all shopkeepers politely that they could keep their shops open, and there was no danger from the procession. This, I thought, was a very considerate gesture. I could observe the shopkeepers skeptically eying this messenger; but they did leave their shops open, and there was no damage.

Now I come to the crux of the matter. Sure, it is the democratic right of every citizen to march peacefully protesting whatever they wish - from stinking garbage to presidential decisions. BUT, there is something called traffic in this city of ours. It has far too many vehicles for its roads. So when these protest marches block entire streets, the already horrendous traffic situation becomes manic. Okay, I concede, those who own vehicles are the elite minority. But what about the taxis who need to earn a livelihood, or all the middle class motor cyclists?

I have seen political protests in many countries. For example, in the United States, they are controlled well by the police and their protest areas are designated beforehand. Traffic is never hampered. By exercising our democratic right to protest (or freedom of expression), we surely do not have the right to tie up traffic, cause commotion and destroy the peace. But this is exactly what our protestors - be they red or of any other hue - are doing. The police apparently do not know that protesters do not have the right to block traffic. Or they do, and don't give a damn!

What Is to be Done?

This is a layman's perspective on the events of the past two days. There are constitutional and legal analyses aplenty. One thing I can say right off is that these events are NOT based on constitutional validity or legalities. They are simply politics.

Prachanda had to ensure that he remained the leader of the Maoist Party. He therefore had to maintain his quixotic stand on sacking the Chief of Army Staff. His unilateral sacking brought down his government and he had to resign. The President was beseeched by 18 political parties to retain the CoAS. He did so in the best spirit of keeping intact the only security apparatus of the nation and to rebuttal the high-handed unconstitutional action of the Maoists.

Now the Maoist high command has declared that they will push for the CoAS's ouster in the streets and in government. They have further declared that a new government cannot be formed without their support. They have also termed the President's action unconstitutional. In effect, they have reverted to their rabble-rousing ways.

The next few days will probably see Maoist rallies all over the country and especially in Kathmandu. I doubt the police can keep the peace. Who else can? Obviously, the Army. The nation has reached this watershed to preserve its Chief. Let us see now if that Chief can direct the army to preserve the peace and security of the Nepali people.

The new government is apparently to be led by the United Marxist-Leninists, supported by the Nepali Congress, the 3rd and 2nd largest parties respectively in the Constituent Assembly. They will need the support of many other parties, not least the Madhesh-oriented parties, to form a government of national consensus. The Maoists should ideally support this "National Government" which can proceed with the drafting of the constitution - the main job of this CA. But Maoist "idealism" would perhaps prevent them from keeping the nation above petty party doctrines.

When Lenin wrote his pamphlet which was titled the same as the title of this piece, he knew what was to be done and did it. I wish Nepali "leaders" were Lenins, minus the Marxist flavour.

MAY DAY!! MAY DAY!!

This morning's (1 May) Kathmandu Post (not the other Indian-controlled daily) puts it succinctly: The Thauus have shut down the Terai (20 districts) for 9 days; essential commodities are in short supply; prices have soared; the queues at the petrol stations in Kathmandu are serpentine; there are daily strikes; and insecurity is rife.

Yet the Neros in our government fiddle on. The Maoists want to, if necessary, unilaterally sack the Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Katwal. The Nepali Congress (NC), as the main oppositin party, is adamantly against it, and for once is showing aome mettle. The UML, which is neither Marxist-Leninist nor united, has come up with a brainless formula - sack Katwal, his number two Khadka (who is trying to be COAS by kissing the Maoists' you-know-what), as well as the Defense Minister Gurung, a top Maoist. NC opposes this. The Maoists, naturally, don't want Gurung removed.

This melodrama is being played out at the expense of the Nepali people who made the Maoists the largest party in the Constituent Assembly. The title of this piece is not a celebration of May 1. Rather, it is the call sign for aircrafts and ships in distress. This country is in distress, without a shadow of doubt. While the daily lives of its people deteriorate, the government is engrossed in political shananigans.

Today we are supposed to celebrate workers' rights. The only workers who have rights in this country are those belonging to the Maoist-affiliated unions. The rest remain as they were - in the morass of feudal, nepotistic constraints. More than half a million Nepalis are working abroad. How they must be celebrating their rights as Nepali workers today!

And while we may shout "May Day" at the top of our voices, asking for help, let there be no misconceptions. The only help can come from we ourselves. Donors, international organizations, and our giant neighbours look promisimg as aid-givers. Let us not live in a fool's paradise. Millions, even billions, of donor dollars may pour into Nepal; but as long as those dollars line the pockets of a corrupt government and further bolster the dominance of the economic elite, nothing will change.

So, "MAY DAY!"

Nepal Army versus Nepal Government

Two glaringly annoying headlines face me today: "Government intent on taking action against Chief of Army Staff" and "Army trashes coup rumours".

Why is the Nepal Army (NA) presenting such a chicken-hearted front? The government asked the COAS for explanation on three issues. The COAS gave perfectly well-reasoned valid explanation. If the Maoists still want to sack him, isn't it time the NA dared them to? Let the rumours fly and scare the daylights out of those who would dismantle the only remaining institution in Nepal preventing a fledgling democracy from turning into a one-party communist dictatorship. Isn't there something in the oath that NA personnel take saying they will lay down their lives for the sovereignty of the nation? Has this been conveniently forgotten by some of these bribe-bloated generals?

If Lt. Gen. Khadka has sided with the Maoists and stabbed the NA in the back, why is he still strutting around instead of being court martialled? It is time for the NA to draw the famous "laxman rekha". "Mess with us and you will get it" - this should be the motto, not "trashing rumours", for heaven's sake.

Doesn't anyone have a backbone in this beleaguered country?

3 Years of Democracy in "New Nepal"

24 April marks the third anniversary of Jana Andolan II, the much vaunted "people's revolution" of 2006. Republica (how obvious can one be?), in its inaugural issue, trumpets "Triumph of People Power". In marked contrast, the Kathmandu Post which bills itself as Nepal's Largest Selling English Daily does not even mention that today is Democracy Day, being observed with a national holiday. So not all believe that people's power was what created JA II.

In a nutshell, on 24 April 2006, the then-King stepped back from his autocratic rule making way for the re-convening of the National Parliament. The anti-King movement had been spearheaded by seven political parties, led by the Nepali Congress (NC) and the United Marxist-Leninist party (UML). In November 2005, under the auspices of the Indian Government, the Maoists who were then still fighting against the government sat down for talks in Delhi with the seven party alliance (SPA). The resulting 12-points agreement effectively brought the Maoists into the SPA as an eighth political force. In a truely communist tactical move, a hard-core communist rebel movement joined efforts towards a multi-party democracy.

The initial call for an end tp an end to autocratic rule by the King snowballed into a anti-monarchy movement. instigated by SPA, Maoists and arguably (only because there is no hard proof) by the Indian Government. Every player had his/her own axe to grind. GP Koirala, the NC president aspired to be the first president of Republic Nepal, and his ambition had no bounds. The Maoists, almost by definition, were not going to support - at least overtly - the monarchy. Unfortunately, India felt put upon when the King pressed for China to have observer status in SAARC (the South Asian Association for Regional Co-operation). It all came to a head on that fateful day 3 years ago when thousands of people took to the streets chanting anti-King slogans. Monarchy had become democracy's bugaboo. And alas, the monarchists had only themselves to blame for this utter failure in reflecting how monarchy and democracy were both needed for the sovereignty, unity and future of Nepal.

The people who came out into the streets have now been deified as the instruments of "people power". It is too late to count how many of those were Maoist cadres, how many were paid by the SPA, and how many were out just to watch the fun.

We observe Democracy Day today in a country whch has pre=maturely been classified as the Federal Democratic Republic of Nepal. Whether we are to be federal or not depends on the deliberations of the Constituent Assembly. We have become a republic in the most undemocratic fashion possible, sans referendum and at the whim of the triumvirate leaders of the Maoists, NC and UML parties. The term "new Nepal" is almost unheard these days. Seems we are relegated to the same old Nepal where the people are shepherded around like sheep. Democratic sheep??!!

THINKING ALOUD: Mulling By-Election Results By S. Khanal

Like the proverbial water-in-the-glass situation, the results of the by-elections held in six constituencies can be interpreted as half-full or half-empty depending on the beholder’s political leaning.

Although the Maoists bagged one more seat than it had won during last year’s CA election (the Maoists, NC and the Forum had won two seats each in the six that were contested recently), the fact that the Maoists’ had the advantage of incumbency must not be minimized in any objective assessment.

Specifically, while they maintained their hold on Rolpa-2, where Prachanda had successfully contested last year, as well as in Kaski-1, where Dev Gurung had similarly emerged victorious, they just managed to secure the top position in Kanchanpur-4, which had been claimed last year by NC’s Sher Bahadur Deuba, by a small difference.

Besides, the margin of the Maoist victory in the two constituencies first named was considerably less spectacular than it had been last year, indicating a clear slippage of sorts in popular support.

NC’s Shekhar Koirala this time barely managed to wrest Morang-7 from the Forum, earlier handsomely won by Chairman Upendra Yadav. Last time around, he had lost badly to the Forum. Though a victory is a victory, it is to be noted that a great deal of importance had been attached to the Morang-7 contest not least by NC boss Girija Prasad Koirala who lent his full political prestige and actually participated in the voting.

The real blow for the NC was in Dhanusha-5 where its candidate came third, and the UML on top, doubtless, in part at least, because Dr Chandra Mohan Yadav, a political novice and son of President Ram Baran Yadav who had swept the polls during last year’s election, was nominated as NC’s candidate.

Clearly, NC once again indulged in dynastic politics and paid a heavy price for it, as its strength in the CA has now dropped by one (as has that of the Forum). Thus, one may be excused for wondering when, if ever, the NC will learn!

Plainly, UML’s victory in Dhanusha-5 is all the sweeter in that its candidate Raghubir Mahaseth who had come in second last year defeated Krishna Yadav of the TMDP, led by Mahanta Thakur. The UML was in fact the only major party which had not won an election in any one of the six contested constituencies, last year. In that sense, too, the UML did well, as compared to its performance in the contested electoral battles, in 2008.

On a more general level, the voter turnout was considerably lower than it was last year, although some may argue that it is reasonable to expect a lower turnout in a by-election than in general election where more is at stake. On the other hand, it can also be said that since more attention can be paid by all concerned parties on a handful of seats than where hundreds are at stake, it is not necessary that voter turnout should, ipso facto, be lower in a by-election than in a general election.

It would thus be a useful exercise for all to attempt to objectively establish the reasons for the drop in voter interest after Nepal has been declared a federal republic.

So, in sum, what do the by elections’ results indicate? To my mind, it suggests that despite the Maoists’ securing one more seat in the CA than it had, this addition is not all that meaningful given that it has been leading the coalition government for the past nine months, benefiting from all the advantages of incumbency, saturation news coverage on a daily basis and the dissemination of perks and patronage executed with a political motivation.

While both the NC and the Forum have, numerically, suffered to the same extent, in proportionate terms, however, the loss for the Forum is more severe since its total in the CA is far below that of the NC, in absolute terms.

On the other hand, the NC’s defeat in Dhanusha-5 can safely be attributed to its pig-headedness in insisting that an absolute political neophyte, Dr Ram Baran Yadav’s son, should be nominated as NC’s official candidate over the heads of others with a record of political work and service to the party.

It is not very clear, at this stage, what if any contribution Sher Bahadur Deuba made towards the defeat of the NC candidate from a constituency that he had won last year. Would greater attention by him, and other NC heavyweights, to the Kanchanpur-4 constituency and its official candidate Yagraj Joshi have made a difference, in view of the fact that the margin of votes between him and the victor is not all that wide?

The UML, as already indicated, has done quite credibly snatching a seat from what was considered a traditional NC stronghold. Is this only a flash in the electoral pan or does it represent a steady political come-back – as was hinted at by the impressive manner in which its recent general convention in Butwal was conducted?

Also worthy of some focused thought is whether its student wing’s spectacular victory in recent student union elections over the NC and the Maoists is might also be a precursor of better days ahead for the UML.

While it was only the Maoists and the UML that gained a seat each in the by-elections, it would seem that the UML’s attractions are manifest more in intellectual and youth circles than perhaps in the general peasantry or less-educated sector.

On a separate plane, I maintain it is quite reasonable to wonder whether the Maoists’ PLA’s dismal failure to make an impression in the Fifth National Games, made possible by its controversial last-minute inclusion by fiat, does not also have political ramifications.

Its failure to bag even a single gold medal in football, volleyball, athletics, badminton, karate and taewondo in the national competition is certainly not an encouraging indicator of the Maoists’ ability to compete on a level playing ground.